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明年汽车销售零增长可能比今年的新浪财经要好

????零增长!明年的汽车销量增长可能比今年要好。三线以下的城市居民有望成为主要购买者。虽然最终结果尚未出炉,但一盆冷水已先倒下——中国汽车工业协会(以下简称“中国汽车工业协会”)12月13日发布,中国汽车市场2019年预测报告预测,2019年汽车总销量将达到28mil。狮子,与2018年一样,增长率为0。今年汽车市场总产销增长率低于年初的预期,全年下降2-3%。然而,根据中国民航的说法,中国的汽车市场只需要维持,但需要大约三年的时间才能缓和。主要反映在2017年底,我国汽车拥有量达到每千人156辆,远低于美国、欧洲和日本等发达国家,随着国民经济发展和人民收入的增加,汽车仍有相当大的增长空间;人口带来购车群体的持续供给,电动汽车销售保持高速增长。销售下滑继续扩大。继传统的“金、九、十”的悲惨表现之后,全国汽车销量继续下滑。根据最新数据,11月份全国汽车销量为255万辆,比去年同期下降了13.9%。其中,乘用车销量217万辆,同比下降16.1%;商用车销量37万辆,同比增长1.7%。从2018年1月至11月,中国汽车销量共计2542万辆,同比下降1.7%,月度累计下降幅度逐渐扩大。甚至作为汽车销售的“利器”的SUV,现在也不再热门了。根据中国民航的数据,自2018年6月以来,SUV车型在一个月内开始同比下滑。从1月到11月,SUV的累计产销量首次下降,累计销量同比下降0.8%。值得注意的是,中国品牌轿车的市场份额也在下降。从1月到11月,中国900万辆汽车的品牌销售额同比下降6%,市场份额为41.9%,下降了1.5个百分点。其中,中国品牌SUV销量达525万辆,同比下降4.2%,与前几年的快速增长形成鲜明对比。根据A股中国品牌汽车公司11月份发布的生产和销售数据,自今年以来,所有汽车公司的总销售额都大幅下降。今年前11个月,SUV旗下的长城汽车共售出786000辆SUV,比去年同期下降了5%。其中,哈佛品牌一月至十一月共售出658000辆汽车,较去年同期下降13.7%。许多汽车公司11月的产销数据并不乐观。1月至11月,东风汽车137000辆,销量同比下降22.5%;长安汽车198000辆,销量同比下降23.53%;海马汽车624000辆,销量同比下降49.88%;江铃汽车244400辆,销量同比下降10.64%。与去年同期相比。当然,也有一些汽车公司销售数据相对较好。根据上汽12月7日晚间公布的数据,今年前11个月客车销量达到632100辆,比去年同期增长35.33%,而艾维柯红岩汽车销量达到542000辆,比去年同期增长42.88%。今年前11个月,广州汽车客车共售出485000辆,比去年同期增长4.3%。为什么市场“刹车”?根据目前的销售趋势,2018年的汽车销量估计为2800万辆,比去年同期下降了3%。这也意味着中国汽车市场已经结束了28年的持续增长,将面临自1990年以来的首次衰退。为什么汽车市场甚至“刹车”?中国汽车工业协会助理秘书长徐海东分析说,从市场因素来看,前三年对小排量1.6L以下车辆实行的优惠税收政策导致提前消费,第六次全国政策的实施迫在眉睫。三线以下城市的消费能力正在下降,一些负面因素影响着汽车市场的进一步增长。GDP放缓、投资和消费下降、M1/M2去杠杆化、房地产库存等宏观经济因素也是汽车销售增长放缓甚至下降的原因。值得注意的是,在经济放缓和收入下降的环境中,用户正在选择更多的二手车,并开始打入新车市场。根据中国汽车协会的数据,2017年中国二手车销量同比增长19.3%,新车销量同比增长3%。从2018年1月至10月,二手车销量同比增长14%,而新车销量同比下降0.1%。经济发展正在放缓,二手车正成为首次购车的首选。这种现象已经开始影响预计将持续数年的新车市场。此外,即将实施的《第六国标》也将加大技术升级的压力和研发成本,这可能导致终端市场单车价格上涨。徐海东说,该标准的实施也会在一定程度上减少市场上车型的供应,消费者在选择较少时会采取观望态度,从而影响新车的销售。然而,一些业内人士认为,中国汽车市场仍有一些增长点。比如,第三线以下城市的汽车购买增长是主要动力。根据《中国县乡统计年鉴》,第三线以下的城市人口为6.6亿,占全国总人口的48%。根据SIC销售数据库,从2009年到2017年,客车销售在三线以下的市场年增长率高达16.8%。乘用车销售增长速度远远高于整个市场。将来,第三线以下的城市的消费者可能会继续影响他们的消费能力。此外,尽管汽车销量急剧下降,新能源汽车的销量仍保持快速增长。11月,新能源汽车销售169000辆,比去年同期增长37.6%。从1月到11月,新能源汽车销量103万辆,比去年同期增长68%。分析人士指出,新能源汽车的增长空间巨大,其车型正逐步走向高端。将来,市场将被淘汰,并购将被重组。平安证券最新研究报告指出,2018年是产业转型年,重大产业政策频繁,影响深远。政策将把工业转变为高质量的发展阶段。汽车工业在1-2个季度将略有改善。从长远来看,国内汽车销售仍有很大的增长空间。新浪声明:此消息由新浪合作媒体转载。新浪为了传递更多信息而张贴这篇文章并不意味着同意其观点或确认其描述。本文的内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者根据自己的风险进行操作。责任编辑:王涵

ling zeng zhang! ming nian de qi che xiao liang zeng zhang ke neng bi jin nian yao hao. san xian yi xia de cheng shi ju min you wang cheng wei zhu yao gou mai zhe. sui ran zui zhong jie guo shang wei chu lu, dan yi pen leng shui yi xian dao xia zhong guo qi che gong ye xie hui yi xia jian cheng" zhong guo qi che gong ye xie hui" 12 yue 13 ri fa bu, zhong guo qi che shi chang 2019 nian yu ce bao gao yu ce, 2019 nian qi che zong xiao liang jiang da dao 28mil. shi zi, yu 2018 nian yi yang, zeng zhang lv wei 0. jin nian qi che shi chang zong chan xiao zeng zhang lv di yu nian chu de yu qi, quan nian xia jiang 23. ran er, gen ju zhong guo min hang de shuo fa, zhong guo de qi che shi chang zhi xu yao wei chi, dan xu yao da yue san nian de shi jian cai neng huan he. zhu yao fan ying zai 2017 nian di, wo guo qi che yong you liang da dao mei qian ren 156 liang, yuan di yu mei guo ou zhou he ri ben deng fa da guo jia, sui zhe guo min jing ji fa zhan he ren min shou ru de zeng jia, qi che reng you xiang dang da de zeng chang kong jian ren kou dai lai gou che qun ti de chi xu gong ji, dian dong qi che xiao shou bao chi gao su zeng zhang. xiao shou xia hua ji xu kuo da. ji chuan tong de" jin jiu shi" de bei can biao xian zhi hou, quan guo qi che xiao liang ji xu xia hua. gen ju zui xin shu ju, 11 yue fen quan guo qi che xiao liang wei 255 wan liang, bi qu nian tong qi xia jiang le 13. 9. qi zhong, cheng yong che xiao liang 217 wan liang, tong bi xia jiang 16. 1 shang yong che xiao liang 37 wan liang, tong bi zeng zhang 1. 7. cong 2018 nian 1 yue zhi 11 yue, zhong guo qi che xiao liang gong ji 2542 wan liang, tong bi xia jiang 1. 7, yue du lei ji xia jiang fu du zhu jian kuo da. shen zhi zuo wei qi che xiao shou de" li qi" de SUV, xian zai ye bu zai re men le. gen ju zhong guo min hang de shu ju, zi 2018 nian 6 yue yi lai, SUV che xing zai yi ge yue nei kai shi tong bi xia hua. cong 1 yue dao 11 yue, SUV de lei ji chan xiao liang shou ci xia jiang, lei ji xiao liang tong bi xia jiang 0. 8. zhi de zhu yi de shi, zhong guo pin pai jiao che de shi chang fen e ye zai xia jiang. cong 1 yue dao 11 yue, zhong guo 900 wan liang qi che de pin pai xiao shou e tong bi xia jiang 6, shi chang fen e wei 41. 9, xia jiang le 1. 5 ge bai fen dian. qi zhong, zhong guo pin pai SUV xiao liang da 525 wan liang, tong bi xia jiang 4. 2, yu qian ji nian de kuai su zeng zhang xing cheng xian ming dui bi. gen ju A gu zhong guo pin pai qi che gong si 11 yue fen fa bu de sheng chan he xiao shou shu ju, zi jin nian yi lai, suo you qi che gong si de zong xiao shou e dou da fu xia jiang. jin nian qian 11 ge yue, SUV qi xia de chang cheng qi che gong shou chu 786000 liang SUV, bi qu nian tong qi xia jiang le 5. qi zhong, ha fo pin pai yi yue zhi shi yi yue gong shou chu 658000 liang qi che, jiao qu nian tong qi xia jiang 13. 7. xu duo qi che gong si 11 yue de chan xiao shu ju bing bu le guan. 1 yue zhi 11 yue, dong feng qi che 137000 liang, xiao liang tong bi xia jiang 22. 5 chang an qi che 198000 liang, xiao liang tong bi xia jiang 23. 53 hai ma qi che 624000 liang, xiao liang tong bi xia jiang 49. 88 jiang ling qi che 244400 liang, xiao liang tong bi xia jiang 10. 64. yu qu nian tong qi xiang bi. dang ran, ye you yi xie qi che gong si xiao shou shu ju xiang dui jiao hao. gen ju shang qi 12 yue 7 ri wan jian gong bu de shu ju, jin nian qian 11 ge yue ke che xiao liang da dao 632100 liang, bi qu nian tong qi zeng zhang 35. 33, er ai wei ke hong yan qi che xiao liang da dao 542000 liang, bi qu nian tong qi zeng zhang 42. 88. jin nian qian 11 ge yue, guang zhou qi che ke che gong shou chu 485000 liang, bi qu nian tong qi zeng zhang 4. 3. wei shen me shi chang" sha che"? gen ju mu qian de xiao shou qu shi, 2018 nian de qi che xiao liang gu ji wei 2800 wan liang, bi qu nian tong qi xia jiang le 3. zhe ye yi wei zhe zhong guo qi che shi chang yi jing jie shu le 28 nian de chi xu zeng zhang, jiang mian lin zi 1990 nian yi lai de shou ci shuai tui. wei shen me qi che shi chang shen zhi" sha che"? zhong guo qi che gong ye xie hui zhu li mi shu zhang xu hai dong fen xi shuo, cong shi chang yin su lai kan, qian san nian dui xiao pai liang 1. 6L yi xia che liang shi xing de you hui shui shou zheng ce dao zhi ti qian xiao fei, di liu ci quan guo zheng ce de shi shi po zai mei jie. san xian yi xia cheng shi de xiao fei neng li zheng zai xia jiang, yi xie fu mian yin su ying xiang zhe qi che shi chang de jin yi bu zeng zhang. GDP fang huan tou zi he xiao fei xia jiang M1 M2 qu gang gan hua fang di chan ku cun deng hong guan jing ji yin su ye shi qi che xiao shou zeng zhang fang huan shen zhi xia jiang de yuan yin. zhi de zhu yi de shi, zai jing ji fang huan he shou ru xia jiang de huan jing zhong, yong hu zheng zai xuan ze geng duo de er shou che, bing kai shi da ru xin che shi chang. gen ju zhong guo qi che xie hui de shu ju, 2017 nian zhong guo er shou che xiao liang tong bi zeng zhang 19. 3, xin che xiao liang tong bi zeng zhang 3. cong 2018 nian 1 yue zhi 10 yue, er shou che xiao liang tong bi zeng zhang 14, er xin che xiao liang tong bi xia jiang 0. 1. jing ji fa zhan zheng zai fang huan, er shou che zheng cheng wei shou ci gou che de shou xuan. zhe zhong xian xiang yi jing kai shi ying xiang yu ji jiang chi xu shu nian de xin che shi chang. ci wai, ji jiang shi shi de di liu guo biao ye jiang jia da ji shu sheng ji de ya li he yan fa cheng ben, zhe ke neng dao zhi zhong duan shi chang dan che jia ge shang zhang. xu hai dong shuo, gai biao zhun di shi shi ye hui zai yi ding cheng du shang jian shao shi chang shang che xing de gong ying, xiao fei zhe zai xuan ze jiao shao shi hui cai qu guan wang tai du, cong er ying xiang xin che de xiao shou. ran er, yi xie ye nei ren shi ren wei, zhong guo qi che shi chang reng you yi xie zeng zhang dian. bi ru, di san xian yi xia cheng shi de qi che gou mai zeng zhang shi zhu yao dong li. gen ju zhong guo xian xiang tong ji nian jian, di san xian yi xia de cheng shi ren kou wei 6. 6 yi, zhan quan guo zong ren kou de 48. gen ju SIC xiao shou shu ju ku, cong 2009 nian dao 2017 nian, ke che xiao shou zai san xian yi xia de shi chang nian zeng zhang lv gao da 16. 8. cheng yong che xiao shou zeng zhang su du yuan yuan gao yu zheng ge shi chang. jiang lai, di san xian yi xia de cheng shi de xiao fei zhe ke neng hui ji xu ying xiang ta men de xiao fei neng li. ci wai, jin guan qi che xiao liang ji ju xia jiang, xin neng yuan qi che de xiao liang reng bao chi kuai su zeng zhang. 11 yue, xin neng yuan qi che xiao shou 169000 liang, bi qu nian tong qi zeng zhang 37. 6. cong 1 yue dao 11 yue, xin neng yuan qi che xiao liang 103 wan liang, bi qu nian tong qi zeng zhang 68. fen xi ren shi zhi chu, xin neng yuan qi che de zeng chang kong jian ju da, qi che xing zheng zhu bu zou xiang gao duan. jiang lai, shi chang jiang bei tao tai, bing gou jiang bei chong zu. ping an zheng quan zui xin yan jiu bao gao zhi chu, 2018 nian shi chan ye zhuan xing nian, zhong da chan ye zheng ce pin fan, ying xiang shen yuan. zheng ce jiang ba gong ye zhuan bian wei gao zhi liang de fa zhan jie duan. qi che gong ye zai 12 ge ji du jiang lue you gai shan. cong chang yuan lai kan, guo nei qi che xiao shou reng you hen da de zeng chang kong jian. xin lang sheng ming: ci xiao xi you xin lang he zuo mei ti zhuan zai. xin lang wei le chuan di geng duo xin xi er zhang tie zhe pian wen zhang bing bu yi wei zhe tong yi qi guan dian huo que ren qi miao shu. ben wen de nei rong jin gong can kao, bu gou cheng tou zi jian yi. tou zi zhe gen ju zi ji de feng xian jin xing cao zuo. ze ren bian ji: wang han

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